German offshore wind generation is expected to reach 180TWh a year by 2045, on a par with onshore wind output, according to the latest in a series of annual "Lead Scenarios" for Germany's federal environment ministry.
In 2045, offshore wind capacity is expected to amount to 45.5GW and onshore to 79.7GW, the working draft of the "Scenario 2013 – Onward Development of Lead Scenario 2011", authored by the DLR Institute in Stuttgart, concludes.
Offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 12.5GW by 2025, 18.4GW by 2030, rising to 26.7GW in 2035, 35GW in 2040 and 45.5GW in 2045, advancing to 56GW in 2050. The study estimates annual installations of about 1GW from around 2020 to achieve these capacities and, later, replace old plants.
The study also foresees imports of renewables generation to Germany reaching a level of around 20TWh a year by 2030, especially wind from the Atlantic coast and solar thermal from southern Europe and Northern Africa.