Germany's federal consumer association Verbraucherzentrale Bundesverband (VzBv) has released a bearish outlook for offshore wind. It was commenting on three scenarios set out last month by Germany's transmission system operators as the baseline for future transmission network developments.
VzBv said none of these scenarios present a realistic picture of future generation capacity, and that assumed expansion for offshore wind "is much too big". The most modest scenario assumes 10.2GW of offshore capacity by 2024, which VzBv considered highly unrealistic. "A capacity of 5-7GW is much more probable," the association claims.
"There is a danger that, due to this erroneous assessment, much more transmission capacity will be planned and built than is needed," VzBv adds, echoing a similar warning from transmission system operator Tennet earlier this month.
The three scenarios are currently subject to public comment before being rubber-stamped by the federal energy agency, Bundesnetzagentur. They will lead to the drawing up of national onshore and offshore electricity network development plans for 2014.